Love it or loathe it, low elevation snowfall in the Okanagan could soon be consumed by the black hole that is global warming.

By Dona Sturmanis

An Okanagan Valley without snow … please! In the last week of November, that’s all I wanted. This premature dump inspired a symphony of police and ambulance sirens in response to accidents on Kelowna streets. I repeatedly shoveled the fluffy stuff off the steps, shivering in the wind chill under layers of fleece and a heavy duty Koolah.
Interesting — despite the big white drop and temp dip, more folks were out in the daytime than you normally see in my ’hood, chatting and walking and geezering in their driveways … what was with them? Maybe they actually liked this stuff (or were from Manitoba), or maybe they knew something many other Okanaganites don’t — the big white is good for us, in more than just the ski hill sense.

You may only need one toque instead of two, however — we’re probably going to be seeing less and less of the white stuff in coming years.

SNOWLESS SCENARIO?
“There are two things you need to know about snow,” says Leif Burge, chair of the earth, environmental science and geography department at Okanagan College. “You need precipitation and the temperature has to be below 0 C. The amount of winter precipitation has been increasing in the Okanagan over the past century. This trend is predicted to continue into the future with climate change — maybe up to 25 per cent more winter precipitation — although the amount of summer precipitation is expected to decrease.
“The winter temperatures have been increasing in the Okanagan — both minimum and maximum temperatures have displayed an increase over the past 100 years. Winter temperatures are predicted to continue to rise due to global warming.” 

So what does this mean? According to Burge, we will get more rain and less snow in the winter in the Valley. Climate data shows we’ve had less snow on
average over the last 100 years.

“In the mountains it will still be below freezing for much of the winter. So at higher elevations, we may get more snow. But it probably won’t last as long because it will melt earlier in the spring due to the higher temperatures.”

Less snow is due to global warming, caused by the greenhouse effect — yes, Verne and Virginia, it is real. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, produced by emissions, combustion and other natural processes, collect in the atmosphere trapping radiation and the heat associated with it. Hence the warming. Hence the climate change.

LESS SNOW, UH-OH ….
“Current trends in measurement of the snow pack have shown that there is less snow at lower elevations than there used to be,” says Denise Neilsen, research scientist at Summerland’s Pacific Agri-food Research Centre.

Neilsen worked with Bill Taylor of Environment Canada, various researchers at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, a huge cast of specialists from Agriculture and Agri-food Canada and local and provincial officials to study the effects of global warming on the Okanagan, which they describe as “a critical ecosystem.” The result was a 2004 report Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Basin. The findings? EnviroZine, Environment Canada’s online newsmagazine, summed it up:
• reduced rainfall in summer and reduced snowfall (though increased rainfall) in winter
• more warming in winter and spring
• less snow in the mountains and earlier melts, increasing the water flow in winter months and lessening water flow in summer when irrigation demand is highest

The scary conclusions:
There will be warmer winters with more moisture and hotter, drier summers in the Okanagan by the 2050s, with up to 35 per cent less precipitation compared to the 1961-90 average. In other words, the agricultural land is at risk of drying up and many water systems may not be able to meet future demands based on current supply capacity.

“There won’t be enough water stored in higher elevation reservoirs,” says Neilsen.

LESS SNOW: GO-GO OR NO-GO?
Less snow in the future could definitely have some frightening implications for such trivial Valley issues as water supply — for people, animals and agriculture. But for the most part, regular Okanaganites will just go about their business, adapting to more or less snow and thinking distantly about what they can personally do to combat the greenhouse effect.

“I don’t think most people believe all that climate change stuff anyway,” speculates Ian Beaton of OK Tire in Westbank, who admits that snow tire sales went up 20 per cent because of late November’s great white dump. “And even if there were less snow, people with common sense would buy snow tires anyway. We live in a Valley and people buy them because they have to travel through the mountains to get anywhere.”

Personally, although I am consciously concerned about the long-term and potentially disastrous effects of less snow on our Valley quality of life, the selfish day-to-day implications seem, at least for me, rather pleasant. I will only buy snow tires if I have to travel outside the Valley during the white months (I don’t often — I fly.) — they’re expensive! My car will get less wear-and-tear because of snowy road conditions and all that sand and salt used to remove snow from the roadways.

In addition, I am not a huge snow sports participant, but many Valley residents are. How will less snow affect athletic winter activities like skiing? Not much — maybe.

“We’ll always have snow at higher levels such as at the ski resorts,” says Mike Roberts, long-term CHBC weather reporter.

James Shalman, general manager at Apex Mountain Ski Resort near Penticton, is optimistic. “A couple degrees warmer would actually give us more snow — if warmer, the flakes will be wetter and bigger, denser and heavier, meaning more snow … -10 C and down the snow is lighter and drier and there is less snow. Two degrees wouldn’t be such a bad thing.”

Cross-country skiers would actually prefer less snow, says Ross Sutcliffe, president of Kelowna’s Nordic Cross-Country Ski Club. He says cross-country skiers don’t need as much snow as downhillers — eight inches cover versus three feet. “If we got less snow, we would just move to a higher elevation,” he says brightly. “And more people would get a mental boost in the winter because they would be above the cloud line in the sunshine.”

Adaptability — going whichever way the snow falls — is a popular attitude. Lance Mallach, owner of Avalance Performance in Penticton, just shrugs his shoulders — his shop sells both motorcycles and snowmobiles. “Naturally with lots of snow, we sell more snowmobiles and related products. If there is less snow and higher temperatures, people will ride their motorcycles more, which they tend to do when it’s freezing and above. If they had their druthers, they’d buy snow tires for their motorcycles — which don’t exist. Personally, I’d buy a heater for mine.”

Less snow and future warmer winter temperatures are just fine for Blair Gogowich, guest services, Spirit Ridge Vineyard Resort and Spa in Osoyoos. “We’ll just become a full-season destination,” he says. “Our winter golf and ski packages will become more popular. After golfing earlier in the day, a guest can take a bus up to the ski hills on Mount Baldy, which is only half an hour away.”

Big snow fall doesn’t affect Osoyoos much anyway — in the late November dump, while much of the rest of the Valley slumbered under a substantial white cover, the southern desert region saw only a centimetre or two at lower levels.

LESS WHITE …FUTURE BRIGHT?
I’ll admit I like being warm and cozy inside when it’s über-nippy outside. With less snow and higher temperatures in the future, I’m wishfully thinking my heating bills will be lower — especially if I throw in some energy-efficient “green” renos that keep the warmth in and the cold out, and utility and water bills don’t skyrocket (Wishful thinking!).

Sleeping in the snow is not fun, unless you’re deliberately winter camping. It comes as no surprise that the more temperatures drop, the more homeless are looking for a warm place to sleep. “Below freezing, it becomes a concern with serious implications,” says Randy Benson of Kelowna’s Gospel Mission, which offers beds to those without a roof over their head. “There was a substantial increase in people looking for shelter this last cold snap. Obviously in a warmer climate, there wouldn’t be the same issues and the pressure wouldn’t be as much.”

Benson doesn’t know for sure if we’d see a greater influx of homeless to the Valley if our snow lightens up and temperatures increase. “There’s lots of homeless people in colder cities than here and they don’t migrate. They stay where they are for months and years. But then again, the effort of migrating is a different issue.”

Farmers and cattle are more comfortable with less snow. Lorna Church, part of the family that owns Vale Farms in Lumby, says they deliver their organic beef and lamb to Kelowna twice a week and lots of snow makes it a little harder. The cows and other farm animals can’t get through deep snow to eat the grass and have to be fed.

Church is quick to point out the downside of warmer climate change. “Plants like to recognize four distinct seasons and not be confused,” she says. “Garlic, in fact, needs a cold period to germinate.”

GRAPE WEATHER WE’RE HAVING
There’s nothing more celestial and elegant than a nip of award-winning local icewine in front of a roaring fireplace when that freezing snow is piled up too high outside. But if we are going to get warmer winters, will we be seeing less icewine as well as less snow?

“If we don’t get the cold temperatures, we can’t make icewines — it is a legal term and we cannot put it on the label, otherwise it’s called late harvest,” says Jane Hatch, who oversees marketing at Kelowna’s Tantalus Winery, which has recently been producing limited icewines.

That’s because in order to be deemed a true icewine, frozen grapes have to be harvested at -8 C. “If year after year, it’s not going to get cold again,” she says, “they may have to change the required temperature for icewine to -5 or -6 degrees Celsius.”

Icewine making in the Okanagan began in 1991, and according to Walter Gehringer of Gehringer Brothers Estate Winery in Oliver, since then, no year has been missed: “We’ve always had an arctic outbreak,” he says.

Icewine aside, Gehringer says that the Okanagan wine industry wouldn’t be the success it is today without the climate change resulting from global warming. In-demand wine grape
species that wouldn’t have lived in our vineyards before climate change are thriving. “Our weather warmed up around the time of the French Paradox in the early 90s,” says Gehringer. “Suddenly, everyone had to have a glass of Merlot on the table. Grape growers thought it was suicide to plant Merlot grapes in their vineyards, but were forced to put them in the ground. Well, they survived along with other varieties. Not only are they surviving the winter, but they have a longer growing season to ripen. Whereas the northernmost wineries were in Kelowna, now they stretch to the Shuswap.”

SHOULD WE BE UPTIGHT ABOUT LESS WHITE?
Now that we know there’s going to be less snow, warmer temperatures and more wine in the future, what are the right attitudes and actions to take so our lake levels don’t fall?
The report Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Basin recommends in no uncertain terms that we have to take measures to manage water and reduce greenhouse emissions.

“People are happy to have no snow, but the lakes are going to dry up and we’re going to die,” says the usually jovial Mike Roberts. Is he quipping?

Learn how to make the most of our winter white in the January/February issue of Okanagan Life - on newstands now!